Good Morning.
A founder on Reddit asked for cold email advice this week. Top reply: "just use AI to write something personal." Second reply: "personalization doesn't work anymore, just blast." Third reply: "cold email is dead." All three had zero data. Welcome to the internet.
Now, let's get into today's Circuit. 🫡
In this Circuit:
🛠️ Operator Tip of the Week
📖 Smartlead's 850M email report - the 5 things worth knowing
📡 Across The Wire
🧪 What I'm Testing
🛠️ Operator Tip of the Week
Before you optimize your cold email copy, check your bounce rate. If you're above 2%, nothing else matters. Your emails are getting filtered before anyone reads them. Fix the list first. Always.
📖 I read Smartlead's 850M email report so you don't have to
Smartlead published their State of Cold Email for H1 2026. 850 million emails, six months, real platform data. Not a survey. Not opinions. Here are the five findings I keep coming back to.
1. The gap is 16x and it's structural
Best senders: 26 contacts per reply. Worst senders: 625. Typical: 135.
Same platform, same inboxes. The gap held steady every single month - it's not seasonal, it's how people send. On a 10,000-person market, the top 5% pulls 384 replies. The typical sender gets 74 from that same list.
My take: everyone debates reply rate percentages. The more useful frame is contacts per reply - it tells you how fast you're eating through your market.
2. Your email is probably too long
Under 50 words: reply every 68 contacts. 100-149 words: reply every 97. 200+: worst bracket.
The typical sender writes 98 words. Nearly double the best range. Under 50 words is 3-4 sentences. That's it.
My take: short is harder than long. You have to know exactly what you're asking and cut everything else. That's the actual work.
3. Gmail earns replies with the least effort
Gmail: reply every 90 contacts. Outlook: reply every 120. Custom servers: reply every 179.
Outlook also bounces harder - about 1 in 23 emails fail vs 1 in 34 on Gmail. Microsoft's May 2025 changes hit.
My take: if you're setting up cold email infrastructure, start with Gmail inboxes. The provider you send from is a lever most people don't think about.
4. Send early, not when everyone else does
6-10am UTC: reply every 75 contacts (7am peak). 1-5pm UTC (the busy window): reply every 120.
Sending when the inbox is crowded costs 60% more effort per reply.
My take: this one's almost too simple. Move your send window earlier and the same email performs better. No copy changes needed.
5. The first email does all the work
Email 1: reply every 85 contacts. Email 7: reply every 303.
The first email generates about 58% of all replies. Later emails don't hurt - unsubscribe rates stay flat at 0.02-0.05%. People just stop reading. The cost stays hidden until results quietly slip.
My take: protect email 1. That's your shot. Don't write it last.
The full report is worth reading if you run outbound. Link in Across The Wire.
🗳️ Poll
📡 Across The Wire
🧪 What I'm Testing
- Comparing reply rates on campaigns with 3 emails vs 5 emails in the sequence
- Cutting email 1 to under 50 words on the next batch
- Comparing Gmail vs Outlook bounce rates on our own domains
Written by Manuel Bourel, Founder @ Altus Revenue